Risk-based surveillance design for early detection of Thrips palmi in orchid greenhouses

Abstract: Thrips palmi is a highly polyphagous pest affecting numerous host plant species,
including economically important ornamental crops such as orchids. Although currently absent from Europe, this pest has been repeatedly intercepted on imported plant commodities, and limited European outbreaks have been successfully eradicated. Protected cultivation systems, such as high-tech greenhouses, characterized by consistently elevated temperatures, provide favorable environmental conditions for the establishment of this insect, if introduced. This study presents a statistically robust, risk-based surveillance plan designed to confirm the absence of T. palmi from orchid greenhouses in the Netherlands. The methodology provides a transferable model for strengthening early detection of quarantine pests in European protected cultivation systems.