Unique logistic model for simultaneous forecasting of major lepidopterous peach pest complex


Abstract: Unbiased prediction of moth phenology is essential for accurate application of severalcontrol measures. In this work the phenology and population dynamics of major lepidopterouspeach pest complex A. lineatella, G. molesta and A. orana were studied using pheromone trapsand temperature recordings in peach orchards in northern Greece. A unique four parameterlogistic forecasting model was developed in order to describe accumulated moth catches inrelation to heat accumulation for all the above species simultaneously. Integration was based on atheoretical degree-day model adjustment in order to generate simultaneously moth phenology ofthe above species, and to outline perspectives in Integrated Pest management (IPM). The uniqueproposed model revealed differences in the phenology of the three species during the cultivationseason and can simplify calculations and recommendations to pest control advisors, based on acommon base temperature and biofix. According to the unified model, moth emergence startswith A. lineatella (~180DD) and G. molesta and A. orana follows some days later (~350DD),while the second flight begins with G. molesta (~600DD) and notably later A. lineatella and A.orana follow (~1000DD) (LTT: 7.2°C, BIOFIX: 1st March). The prediction of the model agreeswell with the observed flight curves of the tree species. The practical implications concerningpopulation dynamics during cultivation season and the application of the unique model for IPMare discussed.

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