Validation of a physiologically based demographic model to predict adults and immature stages of Lobesia botrana in Spain

Abstract: The European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana is one of the main grapevine insect
pests worldwide. IPM programs for L. botrana are based on population monitoring and
application of control measures based on monitoring data. Predictive models are important tools for complementing monitoring data and support decision making about crop protection. A physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) that simulates the population dynamics over time as a function of environmental data, initially validated in the Veneto region (Northern Italy), was further validated by using trapping data of adults collected in 15 different locations in the provinces of Valencia, La Rioja and Zaragoza (eastern and northern Spain) in 2021 and 2022, and eggs and larval counts from 5 Valencia locations in 2021. PBDM simulations were also compared with those provided by the model of Touzeau, an empirical model developed in Toulouse (France) that is used in some European areas, including Spain. PBDM simulations of adults and immature stages fitted with field observations in all locations, and were more accurate than the simulations provided by the Touzeau model.